Turbulent Seas: Navigating Delays & Uncertainty in Dutch Offshore Wind

On 16 May 2025, the Dutch Minister of Climate Policy and Green Growth, Sophie Hermans, announced that two out of three of the planned tenders for offshore wind farm permits in the North Sea have been postponed due to deteriorating market conditions. The justified fear is that issuing all three tenders (for the development of wind farm sites IJmuiden Ver Gamma-A and -B and Nederwiek I-A) in Q4 2025 would result in a lack of suitable bidders, if any at all. Now, only the permit for Nederwiek I-A (1 GW) will be open for tenders in October 2025 (deadline: 30 October 2025, 17:00h CET).

Furthermore, the government has decided to amend the tender criteria in order to improve the business case for offshore wind. Another interesting development is that Zeevonk, who was awarded the permit to develop offshore wind farm site IJmuiden Ver Beta (2 GW), has decided to object to its own award decision in fear of high fines due to delays in project realisation (up to a maximum of €200 million). We will monitor this development closely, but in this article we will provide some further insights into the amended criteria for the upcoming tender for Nederwiek I-A.

Are there improved tender criteria for Nederwiek I-A?

We consider the following amendments to the tender rules / criteria most noteworthy compared to the previous tender round for the IJmuiden Ver Alpha and Beta wind farm sites (2 GW each).

• Option to revoke permit due to changed market circumstances prior to final investment decision. The Policy Rule on amending and revoking the permit (Beleidsregel Wijziging en intrekking van de vergunning windenergie op zee voor kavel I-A in windenergiegebied Nederwiek) stipulates that a permit holder may request the minister to revoke the permit in the first two years after award if the permit holder can show that it cannot (technically, financially or economically) meet the permit requirements. The Tender Rules (Regeling vergunningverlening kavel I-A in windenergiegebied Nederwiek), as well as the minister in its letter, state that if a permit is revoked the permit holder will be fined €100 million “only” (which is new compared to the previous tenders). At least there is certainty about the liability risk if the permit is revoked, which can be taken into account in the business case. 
• Financial bid reduced & payment obligation delayed. For IJmuiden Ver Alpha and Beta, the amount of the financial bid in order to receive maximum points was €420 million per year, for 40 years (full term of the permit). For Nederwiek I-A, the maximum financial bid to receive maximum points is reduced to €150 million per year, due for 35 years from 2031 (i.e. not immediately after permit award but after commissioning).
• Simplified ranking criteria. The minister indicated that the ranking criteria in relation to circularity, ecology and the financial bid have been simplified. The minister also stresses that these criteria are ‘voluntary’, but in practice bidders will want to get maximum points where possible to maximise their chances of winning. At least the ecology financial contributions (€20 million and €11 million for maximum points in Alpha) have been removed.

Can this plan save offshore wind the Netherlands?

The government is taking a clear step-by-step approach without, currently, deviating from the goal of 21 GW offshore wind in 2032. The government frames the amended tender criteria and regulations as a relaxation of the requirements. However, we question whether a true gesture has been made towards the market to improve the business case of potential bidders for offshore wind farm permits. It seems that the market will need more encouragement to get back into the game, like adding a system of Contracts-for-Difference or subsidies. 

If you need more information or further guidance in this area, please contact Tialda Beetstra.